Modelling and analysis of operations in railway networks: the influence of stochasticity (DWV.6072)

Project nummer: dwv6072

Omschrijving van het onderzoek

One of the key issues in designing reliable railway timetables is the computation of optimal running time margins and buffer times, which take stochastic train delays into account and enable maximal throughput of trains at a desired level of punctuality. An existing deterministic approach for the estimation of margins in railway network timetables based on max-plus algebra is extended by adding an effective perfect simulation algorithm so that the impact of stochastic running, arrival and departure times can be incorporated. We combine (1) the development of empirically validated models for train delay propagation with (2) efficient algorithms for dealing with a stochastic extension to the max-plus algebra technique and (3) an approximation analysis tool for determining consecutive train delays at junctions. The tool can be used by railway infrastructure managers and railway consultants to fine tune timetables, to forecast the impact of increasing the frequency of trains, new track infrastructure and modern signalling and safety systems on train operations in networks.

Publicaties

- Yuan, J., Hansen, I.A. (2004) Analysis of scheduled and real capacity utilisation at a major Dutch railway station, in: Allan, J., Hill, R.J., Brebbia, C.A., Sciutto, G., Sone, S. (eds.), Computers in Railways IX, WIT Press, Southampton, pp. 593-602

- Hansen, I.A. (2004) Increase of capacity through optimised timetabling, in: Allan, J., Hill, R.J., Brebbia, C.A., Sciutto, G., Sone, S. (eds.), Computers in Railways IX, WIT Press, Southampton, pp. 529-538

- Hansen, I.A. (2004) Optimisation of railway capacity use by stochastic modelling, in: Mao, B., Z. Tian, Q. Sun (eds.), ICTTS’2004 Traffic & Transportation Studies, Dalian, China, August 2-4, Science Press, pp. 1-10

- Nie, L., Hansen, I.A. (2005) System analysis of train operations and track occupancy at railway stations, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research (5)1, 31-54

- Yuan, J., Hansen, I.A. (2005) Optimizing Capacity Utilization of Stations by Forecasting Knock-on Train Delays, 1st International Seminar on Railway Operations Modelling and Analysis, June 8-10, 2005, Delft, The Netherlands, 21 p.

- Goverde, R.M.P. (2005) Railway Timetable Stability Analysis Using Max-Plus System Theory, 1st International Seminar on Railway Operations Modelling and Analysis, June 8-10, 2005, Delft, The Netherlands, 28 p.

- Meester, L.E., Muns, S. (2005) Stochastic delay propagation in railway networks and phase-type distributions, 1st International Seminar on Railway Operations Modelling and Analysis, June 8-10, 2005, Delft, The Netherlands, 13 p.

- Goverde, R.M.P. (2005) Punctuality of Railway Operations and Timetable Stability Analysis, Ph.D. thesis, TRAIL Thesis Series no. T2005/10, Delft University of Technology

- Leahu, H., Heidergott, B. (2005) Weak Differentiation of General Products of Positive Random Matrices. Invited paper, In: Proceedings of the CDC, Seville, Spain, pages 7793-7798

- Heidergott, B., Olsder, G. J., Van der Woude, J. (2006) Max Plus at Work - Modeling and Analysis of Synchronized Systems: A Course on Max-Plus Algebra and Its Applications, Princeton University Press

- Goverde, R.M.P., Daamen, W., Hansen (2007) I.A., Automatic Identification of Secondary Delays based on Train Describer Systems, Forms/Format, Braunschweig 25-26 January 2007

- Goverde, R.M.P. (2007) Railway Timetable Stability Analysis Using Max-Plus System Theory, Transportation Research, Vol. 41B(2), 179-201

- Yuan, J., Hansen, I.A. (2007) Optimizing Capacity Utilization of Stations by Forecasting Knock-on Train Delays, Transportation Research, Vol. 41B(2), 202-217

- Meester, L.E., Muns, S. (2007) Stochastic delay propagation in railway networks and phase-type distributions, Transportation Research, Vol. 41B(2), 218-230

- Daamen, W., Goverde, R.M.P., Hansen, I.A. (2007) Non-discriminatory Automatic and Distinct Registration of Primary and Secondary Train Delays, 2nd International Seminar on Railway Operations Modelling and Analysis, Hannover 28-30 March, 2007

Gebruikers

The following companies are involved in this project:
- Ortec Consultants
- Erasmus University Rotterdam
- ProRail
- Arcadis Infra BV
- Movares

Projectleider

Prof.dr.-ing. I.A. Hansen	Technische Universiteit Delft Civiele Techniek en Geowetenschappen Afdeling Transport & Planning	Postbus 5048 2600 GA Delft i.a.hansen@tudelft.nl
Dr. R.M.P. Goverde	Technische Universiteit Delft Civiele Techniek en Geowetenschappen Afdeling Transport & Planning	Postbus 5048 2600 GA Delft r.m.p.goverde@tudelft.nl
Prof.dr. F.M. Dekking	Technische Universiteit Delft Elektrotechniek Wiskunde en Computerwetenschappen	Postbus 5048 2600 GA Delft f.m.dekking@tudelft.nl
Dr.ir. L.E. Meester	Technische Universiteit Delft Elektrotechniek Wiskunde en Computerwetenschappen	Postbus 5048 2600 GA Delft l.e.meester@tudelft.nl
Dr. B. Heidergott	Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamDelft Economische Wetenschappen en Bedrijfskunde	De Boelelaan 1105 1081 HV Amsterdam bheidergott@feweb.vu.nl
H. Leahu	Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamDelft Economische Wetenschappen en Bedrijfskunde	De Boelelaan 1105 1081 HV Amsterdam hleahu@feweb.vu.nl

Status van het project

Gestart	: 01-01-2004
Einddatum	: 01-04-2008

Trefwoorden

Beslissysteem, Modelleren, Modellering, Planning, Software, Treinverkeer, Verkeer & Vervoer, Verkeersregulering, railway network, train operations, timetable, punctuality, buffer time, train delay propagation, stochastic model.

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