STW.nl

U bent hier

Probabilistic forecasts of extreme weather utilizing advanced methods from extreme value theory

Project nummer 
14612
Deelnemende kennisinstellingen 
Gebruikers 
One ministry is involved in this project.
Projectleider 
Prof.dr.ir. G. Jongbloed
Technische Universiteit Delft
Faculteit Elektrotechniek,
Wiskunde en Informatica
Applied mathematics

 

Type project 
Lopend
Startdatum 
1 november 2016
Einddatum 
31 oktober 2020
Programma 
Open Technologieprogramma
Vakgebied 
Wiskunde

Extreme events can have disruptive consequences in our society. In order to be able to take precautions prior to such events, early warning systems are required. The goal of this project is to extract the relevant information from various data sources (numerical weather prediction model output, historical observations, current measurements) to obtain skilful probabilistic forecasts of extreme events. This will be done by combining state of the art meteorological knowledge and statistical modelling and estimation techniques from extreme value theory. Major challenges are to identify the important variables (among a huge amount of candidates) and combine these into a coherent estimation procedure for both univariate as well as joint extremes.

Contactpersoon